The online seminar on the development review of the photovoltaic industry in 2021 and the outlook for the situation in 2022 hosted by the China Photovoltaic Industry Association was held in Beijing. The reporter learned at the meeting that in 2021, my country's newly installed photovoltaic capacity will reach 54.88 million kilowatts, a record high, and the output value of photovoltaic manufacturing will exceed 750 billion yuan.
In terms of installed capacity, as of the end of 2021, the cumulative installed capacity of distributed photovoltaics will exceed 100 million kilowatts, accounting for about 1/3 of the cumulative installed capacity of photovoltaics; 55% of the new installed capacity, breaking through 50% for the first time, becoming the main force in the new installed capacity of photovoltaics.
"In the past year, my country's photovoltaic industry has been based on a new stage of development, its industrial advantages have continued to increase, and it has maintained a steady development trend and achieved new breakthroughs." Director of the New Energy and Renewable Energy Department of the National Energy Administration Xing Yiteng affirmed the outstanding achievements of the photovoltaic industry, and pointed out that my country's photovoltaic industry has entered a development stage where centralized and distributed go hand in hand.
"During the '14th Five-Year Plan' period, we will adhere to both centralized and distributed development, vigorously promote the development of photovoltaic bases, and actively promote the construction of large-scale wind power photovoltaic bases focusing on deserts, Gobi, and desert areas. Standardize the promotion of photovoltaic distributed development, Steadily promote the pilot project of distributed photovoltaics on the roof of the whole county to ensure that the pilot work always maintains the correct direction. At the same time, establish and improve relevant standards and normative systems, and strive to create a good and standardized market environment for the development of distributed photovoltaics, especially household photovoltaics." Xing Yiteng explain.
Under the goal of carbon neutrality at peak carbon, the scale of newly installed photovoltaic capacity in 2021 will far exceed expectations. Wang Bohua, honorary chairman of the China Photovoltaic Industry Association, believes that the domestic photovoltaic power generation project reserve is very sufficient, which may push the newly installed photovoltaic capacity to exceed 75 million kilowatts in 2022.
In fact, photovoltaic manufacturing is ushering in a new round of expansion. In 2021, dozens of photovoltaic manufacturing companies will invest more than 100 billion yuan in the development and construction of new production lines, covering all major links in the photovoltaic industry chain such as silicon materials, silicon wafers, cells, and modules. Yang Xudong, deputy director of the Electronic Information Department of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, pointed out that facing huge development opportunities, the photovoltaic industry needs to take high-quality development steps. "This year, the output value of the photovoltaic industry will strive to exceed the trillion yuan mark. We will strengthen supervision with relevant parties to effectively ensure the stability of the supply chain of the photovoltaic industry chain."
Wang Bohua also emphasized that special attention should be paid to the coordinated development of my country's photovoltaic supply chain. "Due to the mismatch of the production expansion cycle of each link in the supply chain, the expansion cycle of silicon wafers, cells, and modules is much shorter than that of silicon materials and photovoltaic glass. Products can easily be in short supply, driving prices up significantly."
In 2021, the supply of silicon materials, silicon wafers and other products will be in short supply, and the prices will skyrocket, causing the investment cost of domestic photovoltaic power plants to rise instead of falling. According to data from the China Photovoltaic Industry Association, in 2021, the initial investment cost of my country's ground photovoltaic system will be about 4.15 yuan/watt, a year-on-year increase of 4%. During the same period, the proportion of non-technical cost of photovoltaic ground power stations in my country decreased by 3.2% year-on-year, and the proportion of component costs increased by 6.7% year-on-year.
Xing Yiteng emphasized that stable supply and stable prices in the industrial chain are the common expectations of the entire industry and are in line with the common interests of the entire industry. Achieving carbon peak carbon neutrality and promoting the sustainable, healthy and high-quality development of the photovoltaic industry is inseparable from the strong support of the industrial chain.
China Photovoltaic Industry Association predicts that in 2022, with the gradual release of new production capacity in various links of the industrial chain, module prices will return to a reasonable level, and the initial investment cost of photovoltaic systems will drop to 3.93 yuan/watt.
Li Qionghui, director of the New Energy and Statistics Research Institute of the State Grid Energy Research Institute, pointed out that as the proportion of renewable energy power generation continues to increase, the problems of insufficient supply of new energy power and difficulties in consumption during the power generation period will frequently appear alternately. During the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, finding the best solution for renewable energy consumption will become a key issue.
Shi Jingli, a researcher at the Energy Research Institute of the National Development and Reform Commission, added that ensuring a high level of utilization of renewable energy, improving the flexibility of renewable energy power consumption, and guiding renewable energy power to participate in market transactions are the keys to the development of renewable energy.
